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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.