Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.